MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1339 Thurs; -1.06% Y/Y

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1339 THURS VS 7.1342

MNI BRIEF: Bank of Korea Keeps Policy Rate At 3.50%

MNI: BANK OF KOREA KEEPS POLICY RATE AT 3.50%: PRESS

MNI: GERMANY JUNE FINAL HICP +2.5 % M/M, +0.2% Y/Y

MNI: GERMAN JUN CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: UK MAY SERVICES INDEX +0.3% M/M, +1.1% 3MM

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Activity data stronger-than-expected; little impact on near-term monpol

UK DATA
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Strong UK GDP print with services and construction both coming in higher than expected (the more volatile non-manufacturing parts of IP disappointed, while manufacturing was in line with expectations).
  • There were also some previous upward revisions which were mixed for April, but prior months pushed up April's 3m/3m GDP print by a tenth.
  • As we noted above, we don't think this really impacts the MPC's August decision on whether rates will be cut - next week's CPI and labour market data remain much more important there and GBPUSD's 10 pip increase on the release shows markets aren't placing huge emphasis on this data either. However, if we continue to get upside surprises to activity data the 100bp of cuts priced in up to August 2025 might start to look like too many.
  • This is a positive activity print, and could be helped by the better weather than April (particularly seen in May retail sales and probably in this construction number). But recall that April itself was stronger than the BOE had expected in spite of that weather.
  • Overall activity data is holding up much better than consensus and the BOE had thought.
188 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Strong UK GDP print with services and construction both coming in higher than expected (the more volatile non-manufacturing parts of IP disappointed, while manufacturing was in line with expectations).
  • There were also some previous upward revisions which were mixed for April, but prior months pushed up April's 3m/3m GDP print by a tenth.
  • As we noted above, we don't think this really impacts the MPC's August decision on whether rates will be cut - next week's CPI and labour market data remain much more important there and GBPUSD's 10 pip increase on the release shows markets aren't placing huge emphasis on this data either. However, if we continue to get upside surprises to activity data the 100bp of cuts priced in up to August 2025 might start to look like too many.
  • This is a positive activity print, and could be helped by the better weather than April (particularly seen in May retail sales and probably in this construction number). But recall that April itself was stronger than the BOE had expected in spite of that weather.
  • Overall activity data is holding up much better than consensus and the BOE had thought.