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ADB Cuts Growth Outlook, Raises Inflation Forecasts

ASIA
  • The Asian and Development Bank cut the 2022 growth forecast for Developing Asia to 4.6% in its latest report (5.2% prior) and raised its inflation forecast to 4.2% (3.7% prior).
  • China 2022 GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 4% (vs. 5%) given the surging uncertainty amid zero-Covid policy, which is still ‘optimistic’ relative to some sell-side forecasts.
  • For instance, GS cut China’s 2022 growth forecast to 3.3% (from 4% earlier) after weak GDP data.
    • As a reminder, China recorded its worst quarterly performance since the start of 2020, expanding by 0.4% YoY in Q2 (below BBG consensus of 1.2%).
  • Bank of Indonesia decided to keep its 7D reverse repo rate steady at 3.5% (as expected) despite the central bank expecting inflation to exceed the upper tolerance band at 4% this year.
  • We have seen that some central banks in Asia / SE Asia have entered into a tightening cycle this year after keeping a status quo for nearly 2 years (following Covid shock) as inflation has started to accelerate in the region.
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