Adjusted UK Labour Market Data Suggests Further Loosening

The remainder of the UK labour market statistics have been released, containing "adjusted" levels and rates for employment, unemployment and inactivity ("Table X10"). LFS estimates for these figures were not made available, and the ONS note that LFS estimates in this release "should be used with extreme caution".

• For ages 16-64, the adjusted SA unemployment rate for June to August 2023 rose 0.2pp to 4.3% (vs 4.1% from March-May 2023). The largest increase in unemployment (excluding ages 16-17) was for persons aged 18-24 (up by 0.9pp to 11.7% from 10.7% in the 3-months prior).
• The adjusted employment rate (again for June to August) fell 0.3pp to 75.7% (vs 76.0% in the 3-months prior), while inactivity rose fractionally to 20.9% (vs 20.8% in the 3-months prior).
• Vacancies fell by 43,000 from July - September 2023 to 988,000, but an updated calculation of the vacancy-unemployment ratio is not available due to lack of LFS data described above. The majority of these vacancies were seen in the services sector.
• Experimental adjusted figures "derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards" according to the ONS, and do not contain an industry breakdown.
• While it is difficult to compare the data to previous releases in an accurate manner, the data provided by the ONS in Table X10 suggests a continued gradual softening of the labour market.
• GBP/USD has held a small uptick of around 12 pips following the release, with some perhaps reacting to the jobless rate and employment change metrics vs. expectations. Incremental strength has also been seen vs. the EUR.