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AUD: A$ Holding Above 0.6200, But AUD/JPY Falls To Fresh YTD Lows

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AUD/USD is holding 0.30% lower for Thursday's session, last near 0.6205/10. The A$, along with some other higher beta currencies, were weaker against the USD, as Thursday trade unfolded. The safe havens, particularly yen, were outperformers for the session. The USD BBDXY index edged up a touch, but the DXY index was down, but aggregate moves were modest for these indices. 

  • The A$ remains within recent ranges, with upticks towards 0.6230 sold post the Asia close on Thursdays but dips sub 0.6200 supported. Recent highs rest at 0.6247, while the 20-day EMA is around 0.6235. Downside focus will rest on 0.6131, the Jan 13 low. Technical indicators remain bearish for the currency, with the recent recovery considered corrective.
  • The USD saw some weakness on Thursday, as the Fed’s Waller failed to rule out a rate cut in March. This contrasts with current market pricing.  US Tsy yields are 2.5-5bps weaker across the benchmarks, led by the belly of the curve. US data was mostly solid, with the Philly Fed survey surging.
  • Equity sentiment was mixed with EU markets up, but the SPX finished down 0.21%. This, coupled with lower US yields and BoJ hike speculation, aided the yen move. AUD/JPY getting to fresh lows for the year. The pair last near 96.35/40, losing 1.1% on Thursday.
  • Commodity indices were higher, led by the metals side, with Bloomberg index up over 1%. Copper is up 10% so far this month but this hasn't impacted AUD sentiment positively
  • The local data calendar is empty today, but we do have a host of China data prints, Dec activity, along with Q4 GDP, which could influence A$ sentiment. 
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AUD/USD is holding 0.30% lower for Thursday's session, last near 0.6205/10. The A$, along with some other higher beta currencies, were weaker against the USD, as Thursday trade unfolded. The safe havens, particularly yen, were outperformers for the session. The USD BBDXY index edged up a touch, but the DXY index was down, but aggregate moves were modest for these indices. 

  • The A$ remains within recent ranges, with upticks towards 0.6230 sold post the Asia close on Thursdays but dips sub 0.6200 supported. Recent highs rest at 0.6247, while the 20-day EMA is around 0.6235. Downside focus will rest on 0.6131, the Jan 13 low. Technical indicators remain bearish for the currency, with the recent recovery considered corrective.
  • The USD saw some weakness on Thursday, as the Fed’s Waller failed to rule out a rate cut in March. This contrasts with current market pricing.  US Tsy yields are 2.5-5bps weaker across the benchmarks, led by the belly of the curve. US data was mostly solid, with the Philly Fed survey surging.
  • Equity sentiment was mixed with EU markets up, but the SPX finished down 0.21%. This, coupled with lower US yields and BoJ hike speculation, aided the yen move. AUD/JPY getting to fresh lows for the year. The pair last near 96.35/40, losing 1.1% on Thursday.
  • Commodity indices were higher, led by the metals side, with Bloomberg index up over 1%. Copper is up 10% so far this month but this hasn't impacted AUD sentiment positively
  • The local data calendar is empty today, but we do have a host of China data prints, Dec activity, along with Q4 GDP, which could influence A$ sentiment.