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ADP Beats Expectations... But Signal For Nonfarms Remains Unclear

DATA REACT

The -88K revision to April's figure did little to take the sheen off a strong beat in May's ADP payrolls reading (+978k jobs vs +650k survey, and above the highest estimate of +900k).

  • Services provided +850k of the total, with goods +128k. Within Services, Leisure and Hospitality were +440k, and trade/transport/utility +118k - both likely closely linked to reopening. A strong +65k figure for construction also noteworthy in the midst of a housing sector boom.
  • That said, the large discrepancy between ADP and the BLS nonfarms figure for April last month should be kept in mind, for another potential overestimation by the ADP's model for May. But perhaps we'll see some modest adjustments higher in the surveys for tomorrow's NFP (currently +655k, with BBG whisper number +780k).


Source: ADP

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