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ADP Misses And Job Changers Wage Growth Premium Narrows

US DATA
  • ADP employment missed in January, rising 107k (cons 150k) after a modestly downward revised 158k (initial 164k) in Dec.
  • Bloomberg consensus has 165k for private payrolls in Friday’s release but as always the correlation between the two is called instead question.
  • Within ADP’s pay insights, Bloomberg shows job stayers pay increased 5.2% (from 5.4%) - lowest since Aug'21 - whilst job changers saw a sizeable moderation to 7.2% (from 8.0%) - lowest since May'21.

Job changers (yellow) vs job stayers (white) wage growth Source: Bloomberg

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