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Aegon: Transitional Operatin Result, Credit Metrics Look Solid

FINANCIALS

Aegon (AGN NA) 2H23 results have missed at the operating level but solvency and capital generation look reasonably solid. Likely credit neutral, the company’s EUR cash curve has tightened YTD and there seems little to upgrade a view from here.


  • Key credit metrics: solvency II ratio of 193% was 3pp better than consensus and operating capital generation was EUR660 (+16% y/y) which was ahead of both management guidance and consensus. Nominal leverage is lower, but the ratio is up 80bp (to.26.5%) but FCF is ahead of expectations (EUR429m vs. 370m est.)
  • The operating result was down nearly a third y/y (and 23% below consensus), largely driven by the US business. AuMs were up marginally which is c.2% ahead of expectations but the dividend is marginally below (EUR0.16 vs. 0.17 est).
  • Outlook: mgmt sees capital generation of c.EUR1.2bn by 2025 (similar to current run-rate) and FCF looks to be similar. Gross leverage is also seen as stable.

Conf call is 0800 London time at: https://events.q4inc.com/earnings/AEG/Aegon-2H-2023-Results

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