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May Trade Surplus Narrower Than Estimates


Attention Is On The Bull Trigger

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STIR: After a quiet start to the European session today, there has been a pick
up in risk aversion into the afternoon. This deterioration in risk sentiment has
not been helped by a disappointing Empire Manufacturing number in the US.
- The Eurodollar futures strip has shifted higher today. Most of the strip has
shifted 1.5 ticks higher but the U9-U0 sector has seen a slightly bigger 2-2.5
tick move higher.
- The H0-H1 part of the Euribor curve has also shifted higher, by 1-1.5 ticks,
while there has been a steepening of the curve at the Blue end, with Z1-Z2
spread rising 1.5 ticks.
- In the UK, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said that he would hold a vote of no
confidence in Theresa May if she did not announce a date for the vote on the
Brexit deal. This would have been a symbolic rather than binding act, but PM May
yielded to this pressure and announced that the vote would be held in the third
week of January. The Short Sterling curve has shifted lower and steepened today.
Whites are 1-1.5 ticks lower, Reds 1.5-3 ticks lower, Greens 3-4.5 ticks lower
and Blues 3.5-5 ticks lower.

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