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After a strong start to the European...>

BOND SUMMARY
BOND SUMMARY: After a strong start to the European session, core bonds hit their
highs of the day following a disappointing German IFO print and have now
retraced some of their gains. The disappointing German IFO follows yesterday's
disappointing PMIs, with the German manufacturing PMI particularly poor.
- Focus now turns to the ECB meeting with the vast majority of analysts
expecting today to set up easing in the September meeting. The most likely
change is that the forward guidance is changed by adding "or lower", indicating
that rate cuts are possible ahead. A brief statement will released at 12:45BST
with Draghi's press conference at 13:30BST. There have been some interesting
Euribor trades yesterday, see earlier comments for details.
- The ECB is not the only game in town today, durable goods orders will be
released in the US alongside trade, inventory and claims data.
- In the UK, Johnson is expected to set out his priorities while new Lib Dem
leader is reported to be considering an Early Day no confidence vote.
- TY1 futures are up 0-4+ today at 127-21 with Bund futures up 0.12 at 174.42
and gilt futures up 0.11 at 132.30.

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