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Aggregate Financing Surprises Positively In March

CHINA
  • China total aggregate financing rose more than expected in March by 4.65tr CNY (vs. 3.55tr expected), up from 1.19tr CNY the previous month.
  • China annual change in ‘liquidity’ (defined as the TSF 12M Sum) has been surging in the past few months after hitting a local low at -5.1tr CNY in October 2021.
  • Renewed lockdown policies imposed to major cities (i.e. Shanghai) amid new surge in cases in recent weeks have been weighing on both the real economy and domestic asset prices and threaten more global supply disruption.
  • In addition, the global risk-off environment (amid geopolitical uncertainty) has left risky asset vulnerable; China equities remain ‘very cheap’ despite the positive bounce we saw in March.
  • The Hang Seng Index has been retracing lower in the past week after finding a local high at 22,523.60 (April 4th) and broke slightly below its 21,291.20 support on Monday (23.6% Fibo retracement of 18,235.50 – 31,183.40 range).
  • USDCNY has been trending higher since the start of the month (amid global USD strength) and is currently testing the 6.37 level; key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 6.4060 (200DMA).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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