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Ahead of today's US Non-farm........>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: Ahead of today's US Non-farm Payrolls data at 1230GMT, MNI's
Data Team highlight downside risks to the headline number. The median forecast
in an MNI survey shows analysts expect October nonfarm payrolls to rise by
190,000 when they are released on Friday, a larger gain than the 134,000
increase in September, with a clear risk of an overestimate. Analysts also
expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.2%, the average workweek to remain at
34.5, and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.7%. The report adds, based
on analysts' history, there is a downside risk to the headline value. In the
month of October, analysts have overestimated payrolls 12 times out of the last
20 years and underestimated eight times, showing a slight tendency to miss to
the high side. When they overestimate, they do so by an average of 42,750 and
when they underestimate it is by an average of 83,250. This suggests that even
though overestimates tend to be smaller than underestimates, it is more likely
that analysts will miss to the high side this month. In more recent years,
analysts have missed to the high side six out of the last 10 years. Please
contact us for further details.  

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