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GERMANY: Ahead of tomorrow's German ZEW survey, MNI's date team note analysts
have consistently overestimated the May ZEW ESI outturn over the past fifteen
years. Since 2002, a negative data surprise (when the analysts' consensus has
overshot the actual result) has been delivered every May on all but three
occasions, including the last eight. The average downside surprise has been -4.7
points. This trend also extends to recent months. Over the past year analysts
overestimated the index result nine times, including the past two months, with
an average miss of -3.2 points. For this May the market consensus is for a
moderate improvement to -6.0. For the full report please see MNI Main Wire