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Ahead of tomorrow's Norges Bank.........>

NORGES BANK
NORGES BANK: Ahead of tomorrow's Norges Bank monpol decision, analysts at Credit
Suisse expect rates to remain unchanged at 0.5% but see a risk of a more hawkish
rate path forecast, signaling a tightening in December this year rather than Q1
2019. They believe that the Norges Bank could take the slightly hawkish tweak in
the ECB's language, combined with solid international and mainland growth, as
well as the positive regional network survey results this week, as an
opportunity to signal a more hawkish rate path.
- Nordea note renewed signs of increasing growth momentum in last week's
regional network survey, they are getting more and more certain that the rate
path will once again be revised upwards. Nordea now think Norges Bank will hike
rates in September.
- SEB expect the bank to signal with a 100% certainty that a rate hike will
occur in 2018 and we are tilted toward a September lift-off. Hence, we expect
the bank to lift the short-end of the rate path slightly, to signal a first hike
in September as the most likely outcome (60% September, 40% December).

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