Ahead of tomorrow's UK CPI, analysts.....>

UK PREVIEW: Ahead of tomorrow's UK CPI, analysts at Barclays expect headline and

core CPI inflation to ease to 2.7% y/y and 2.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y and 2.7% y/y,

respectively, and forecast CPIH inflation to decline to 2.5% y/y from 2.7% y/y

previously.

- Nomura forecast a two-tenths fall in CPI inflation to 2.8% in February. With a

wedge of around 1pp, that would leave RPI inflation also 0.2pp lower at 3.8%.

The survey indicators of output prices have eased but remain strong enough to

justify their forecast of a 0.2% monthly rise in core prices in February. A rise

in GBP and fall in oil prices could push input prices down by 1%.

- RBC look for February CPI inflation to drop to 2.8% y/y (on its way to 2.4%

y/y by year-end). This would be just below the Bank of England staff forecast of

2.9% y/y. A similar result is anticipated for RPI and CPIH inflation rates too,

where in each case they look for a 0.2ppt drop in the annual rates to 3.8% y/y

and 2.5% y/y respectively.