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Ahead of tomorrow's UK CPI release.......>

UK PREVIEW
UK PREVIEW: Ahead of tomorrow's UK CPI release (0830GMT), MNI's Data Team note
that analysts have displayed a tendency to underestimate CPI inflation in July.
Whilst getting the result correct three times during this time, analysts
underestimated the result five times with an average miss of 0.16pp. They
overestimated July CPI just twice, with an average miss of -0.15pp, but one of
these did arrive last year, with the other also in the last 5 years. This
suggests that at 2.5%, the consensus expectation comes with a degree of upside
risk. Pump prices look set to have made another positive contribution to
headline inflation in July. Accountable for 0.15pp and 0.10pp of upside pressure
in May and June, petrol and diesel prices looked to have provided around
0.02-0.03pp worth of inflationary pressure last month. For the full report
please contact us.

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