Ahead of tomorrow's UK GDP release,......>

UK PREVIEW: Ahead of tomorrow's UK GDP release, analysts at RBC note the

expenditure breakdown will become available at this stage, although the incoming

information since the preliminary estimate hasn't persuaded us that there will

be a revision away from the 0.5% q/q headline growth rate originally published

(1.5% y/y).

- In the absence of any revisions to the headline rates of growth (0.5% q-o-q

and 1.5% y-o-y). Nomura say the focus in the second estimate of GDP will be on

the expenditure side of the accounts. Consumer and investment spending growth

will be focal points as they try to make sense of how Brexit has influenced

growth via its impact on sterling, inflation and uncertainty.

- In line with available output data, Barclays expect GDP to be confirmed at

0.5%q/q assuming IoS remains in line with recent trends (ie, +0.1%m/m). They

forecast the expenditure breakdown to show slower consumption growth (+0.1%q/q)

but a pickup in capex (+0.3%q/q). Monthly trade data points towards a sizeable

negative contribution of net exports (-0.6pp) but this will likely be offset by

positive inventories.