Airlines; May Traffic

New Finnair29s (NR/BB+) (cheap view on) {FIA1S FH Equity}

• May capacity/ASK was 3366mil up from 3055 last month & trending in the right direction to low 10k level Q2 consensus is at. Load factor did disappoint coming in at 71.3% from 72.5% last month. Q2 (3m ending June) & Q3 tend to be seasonally strongest for it (76.3% & 80.9% last year).
• Cheap view still valid on the new 29s (at Z+207), 3m par call only, background on co here.

Ryanair (NR/BBB+/BBB+) {RYA ID Equity}

• Traffic at 18.9m passengers, up from 17.3m last month & 17m last year; analyst noting the 2-month sum is +10%yoy & above co's guidance for FY25 growth of +8%. Ryanair reports FY ending March for reference
• Load factor was 95% up 3ppt MoM & 1ppt YoY. Consensus is at 94% for 1Q (3m to June) - looks conservative given it tends to rise into final month of 1Q & stay elevated till tail end of summer/August.
• Hard to care about Ryanair fundamentals here; its committed to being "debt free" in 2026 as it pays down (without refi) the 25/26 lines. As for the reasoning why it clarified it wanted a rainy day fund of €3-4b (both gross & net cash position!) and was important given "there will be another downturn...we don't know when it will come or what will cause it, but there will be another downturn."

Wizz Air (WIZZLN; Ba1/NR /BBB- Neg) {WIZZ LN Equity}

• Traffic linked herealong with delayed take on FY24 full results (we already had pre-lim numbers).
• There is a likelihood it joins Ryanair and departs the local market (by not refi-ing the 26s).