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All About Inflation

US TSYS

Treasuries weakened slightly overnight Tuesday but without any real conviction and within the previous couple sessions' ranges. Focus is on today's much-anticipated CPI release.

  • Slight steepening in the curve: 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.215%, 5-Yr is up 1.3bps at 0.8176%, 10-Yr is up 1.2bps at 1.3377%, and 30-Yr is up 1bps at 1.9139%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 4.5/32 at 133-05 (L: 133-03.5 / H: 133-09.5), average volumes (~270k traded).
  • Tuesday is all about the August CPI report, which is expected to show further deceleration in price pressures on both core and headline vs June's peak. We'll put out our short preview shortly.
  • That being said, a modest deviation from the survey median on core (+0.3% M/M) will probably be discounted as an aberration either way, with the underlying components more closely eyed for signs of more lasting pipeline price pressure / disinflation.
  • Inflation aside, it's a quiet calendar, with no other data (earlier, NFIB small business optimism X), no supply, and no Fed speakers.
  • No NY Fed operational purchases either, though we get a new schedule of upcoming buying ops at 1500ET.
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