-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI DATA TABLE: MNI China Interbank Liquidity Index (Jul) - 1
MNI DATA TABLE: MNI China Interbank Liquidity Index (Jul) - 2
MNI DATA TABLE: MNI China Interbank Liquidity Index (Jul) - 3
All Eyes on Inflation and Aggregate Financing Updates
- This week, market will be closely watching China inflation data coming out on June 9 (with CPI and PPI expected to rise to 1.6% and 8.5% in May, respectively) and new updates on Total Social Financing (TSF) and money supply.
- We have seen that China 'liquidity' has been tightening in the past few months with the annual change in the 12-month sum of TSF falling from over 10tr CNY in October 2020 to 3.1tr CNY in April 2021.
- With aggregate financing (combining banking and shadow banking activity) expected to reach 2tr CNY in May, the annual change in 12m sum will then fall to less than 0.5tr CNY (see chart).
- A a reminder, a contraction in Chinese credit and liquidity has generally been marked by a correction in risky assets (such as equities) and commodities in the next 6 to 9 months.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
- Interestingly, the spike in China PPI ( which has historically strongly co-moved with China 10Y) has not been followed by an increase in China 10Y yield; the chart below shows the recent strong divergence between the two times series.
- In the past cycle, some investors have been using the PPI inflation as a proxy for China inflation after the relationship between the 10Y and CPI inflation broke down in 2013.
- The 10Y yield has been retracing higher since the start of the month, currently standing slightly below its 50D SMA resistance at 3.15%; next level to watch on the topside stands at 3.18% (100D and 200D SMA).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.