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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessAll eyes on the ECB
- All eyes are on the ECB meeting today, with markets pricing in around 34bp at writing (i.e. 25bp fully priced with around 35% probability of a 50bp hike priced). Following the Reuters sources piece earlier this week, the September meeting has moved to price in a cumulative 98bp and so if there isn't a 50bp hike today and the ECB doesn't strongly hint towards a larger than 50bp hike we are likely to see the curve come back a bit. However, whether that changes expectations of where rates will be in 1-2-years time is more debatable and there is still scope for the ECB to use hawkish language together with a 25bp hike. Note that the timings for ECB decisions have changed. The policy statement / decision will be released at 13:15BST / 8:15ET with the press conference beginning at 13:45BST / 8:45ET.
- There will also be close attention paid to the anti-fragmentation tool, particularly now that Italian political instability (with Draghi resigning) has seen BTP-Bund spreads widen once more. 10-year spreads had been over 20bp wider on the day earlier, but are now back to 13bp wider at the time of writing.
- The morning session has also been busy for issuance with Spain, France and the UK all holding auctions.
- Elsewhere today we will receive US weekly claims data, the Philly Fed survey and the leading index.
- TY1 futures are down -0-4+ today at 117-20+ with 10y UST yields up 1.9bp at 3.046% and 2y yields up 1.0bp at 3.239%.
- Bund futures are down -0.36 today at 150.92 with 10y Bund yields up 3.0bp at 1.284% and Schatz yields up 4.3bp at 0.634%.
- BTP futures are down -2.12 today at 120.73 with 10y yields up 17.1bp at 3.554% and 2y yields up 17.4bp at 1.932%.
- Gilt futures are down -0.44 today at 114.74 with 10y yields up 4.5bp at 2.183% and 2y yields up 5.9bp at 2.110%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.