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Alstom Results Solid; Prospect Of Equity Dilution To Bolster Credit

CAPITAL GOODS

Alstom (ALO FP) cross-asset view: equity showing -5% y/y after results but credit tightening marginally.


  • Alstom results (3Q24 or 3M to Dec-23) beat on orders (EUR5.45bn vs. EUR5.1bn consensus) and was broadly in line on revenues (EUR4.3bn) which gave some comfort on operating metrics.
  • However, mgmt plans to retain investment grade via deleveraging of EUR2bn by Mar-25 included the phrase “equity-like instruments” which has raised the prospect of some form of equity dilution (convertible?) to bolster the credit stack. This would be a positive for the credits, less so for the equity and there’s also some disappointment at the rate of asset sales. Mgmt comments that these are simply “progressing” with little further detail.
  • Alstom’s liquid ’26 line (ALOFP 0 1/4 10/14/26) is streaming around 1bp tighter this morning but, relative to Rexel’s closest comparator, is doing little to re-establish the premium it used to enjoy before the Oct-23 release highlighted poor cash flows for 1H24.

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