Alternative Dem Candidates Run Ahead Of Biden By 3 Points In Swing States

Democrats opposed to President Biden’s candidacy are circulating a memofrom BlueLabs Analytics that details negative polling for the president, drawn from interviews with 15,000 voters in seven swing states.

• The memo’s topline findings: “Alternative Democratic candidates run ahead of President Biden by an average of three points across the battleground states. Nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President. This includes Vice President Kamala Harris who runs better than the President (but behind the average alternative).
• “Some of the gains are coming from winning undecideds and those previously supporting a third party. However, alternative candidates are also pulling votes from Donald Trump. All candidates continue to hold the Democratic base.
• “Voters are looking for a fresh face. Those more closely tied to the current administration perform relatively worse than other tested candidates.”
• Politico notes on the memo: “The data here opens a new front in the fight to replace Biden, strongly arguing that the best chance to defeat Trump is with a new Democratic nominee independent of the incumbent administration. In other words: not Kamala Harris.”
• The memo found that the best-performing alternative candidates were: Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Governor Wes Moore (D-MD), Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI).
• Polymarket shows Biden's implied probability of dropping out of the race at 34%, down from over 70% last week, a sign that traders believe Biden may have done enough to keep the rebellion against his candidacy at bay.