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Amadeus MT Guidance Slightly Ahead On Revenue But Slightly Soft On FCF

TECHNOLOGY

Rating: Baa2/BBB


  • Amadeus slides uploaded in advance of tomorrow’s CMD imply 2023-2026 targets of 9-12.5% revenue CAGR (FY23: +21%), broadly stable EBITDA margins (FY23: 34.1%) with EBIT margin expansion, cumulative FCF of EUR 3.9-4.2bn (FY23: EUR 1.15bn), CapEx to range from 11-13% of sales (FY23: 11%) with a decreasing trend and successive fixed cost growth moderation.
  • Figures look to be at the upper end of consensus on revenue with BBG consensus implying revenue CAGR of 9.9% and in line on EBITDA margins with consensus for CAGR of 11.6% though the total FCF guidance looks a bit soft compared to the BBG consensus of EUR 4.2bn.
  • Target leverage remains at 1-1.5x (1.1x reported at Q1) while the 40-50% dividend ratio policy complemented with extraordinary payouts as appropriate is also unchanged.
  • Slides: https://corporate.amadeus.com/documents/en/investo...
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