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An All-Around Hawkish Establishment Survey Despite Some Minor Caveats

US DATA
  • Overall NFP growth far stronger than expected at 303k (cons 214k) in March along with a small net upward revision of 22k (-5k in Feb but +27k in Jan).
  • The private data again take the gloss off the beat though, with a slightly smaller beat (232k vs cons 170k) and a two-month revision of only +3K including -16k for Feb.
  • As above, AHE was on the strong side of expectations at 0.347% (cons 0.3) after an upward revised 0.174 (initial 0.145).
  • That’s despite stronger than expected average hours worked at 34.4 (cons 34.3) even if the latter sticks to its 34.3-34.4 range seen in all but one month since Mar’23.
  • The non-supervisory category was a little softer however at 0.24% after 0.27% M/M and sees a softer trend.
  • Latest three-month trends 4.1% annualized for AHE, 3.8% for non-supervisory.

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