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Analyst CPI Wraps (A-Z) – [1/3]

US
  • BofA: A noisy report where some of the strength should be faded due to airfares but underlying pressures remain elevated. Risks of a 75bp hike are low but the report clearly adds to the debate at the margin.
  • BMO: Heated price gains wide and far in April, apart from some further slippage in used car prices and a drop in clothing costs. It may not spur a 75bp hike in June but it locks in 50bps.
  • BNP: Peak inflation has passed but the deceleration "is likely to be sticky", with the service-driven upside surprise pointing "towards continued near-term strength and inflation prospects being increasingly susceptible to tight labor conditions”.
  • CIBC: Base effects will help Y/Y inflation continue to decelerate in the near-term but limited by the climb in gas prices, supply disruptions tied to lockdowns in China, the tightening in the labor market and upside from shelter.
  • DB: Don’t read too much into the dip in Y/Y rates, the Fed will have to go fast and far to bring aggregate indices lower, as core services will be even more resistant to tighter policy.
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