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Analyst CPI Wraps (A-Z) – [3/3]

US
  • Pantheon: Still expect 50bp hike in June but the chance of a switch to 25bp in July probably now is less than we hoped unless May and June core much lower. Core ex cars, airfares and rents, was +0.31% M/M, lowest since September.
  • RBC: The tick lower in annual rates of inflation is not expected to change the Fed’s view that higher interest rates are needed quickly. Looking for two 50bps hikes (June, July) followed by 25bps hikes to Jan with a terminal 2.75-3%.
  • StanChart: Less market-unfriendly than the headline surprise suggests but not nearly as market-friendly as investors had hoped for.
  • TD: Price gains within core appear to be spreading and not only contained within the shelter category. Continue to expect 50bp hikes in June and July, with a fourth 50bp increase in Sep also in play.
  • Wells Fargo: March's 6.5% Y/Y core CPI is "likely" the "high watermark for core inflation this year" so optimists can point to increasing likelihood that inflation has stopped getting worse. Unlikely to shift Fed’s tone, see further 50bp hikes in the pipeline.
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