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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessAnalyst Expectations For 2024 Dots (And Actual Cuts) Vary Widely (1/2)
From the Analyst Outlook portion of our December FOMC meeting preview:
- Beginning with the Dot Plot, which will probably the most closely-watched part of the communications: the median of analysts’ medians for the 2024 Fed funds rate dot is 4.9%, representing 50bp of cuts next year, and 25bp lower than the September projection of 5.1%.
- Opinion is quite split though: the 21 analysts who provided their Dot expectations, 2 saw a 5.1% 2024 median (Barclays and NatWest), while 7 saw a 4.6% median.
- For the outer years, the median expectations are 3.6% for 2025 (range of 3.4-3.9%) and 2.9% for 2026 (range of 2.5-2.9%). Almost all analysts expect the longer-run median dot to remain at 2.5%, with notable exceptions Goldman Sachs (2.6%) and JPMorgan (“good chance” of 2.75%).
- On December's economic projections: Most expect mark-to-market changes to mean higher GDP for 2023 and potentially 2024, a possible uptick in unemployment forecasts, and lower PCE/core PCE for 2023/2024.
- As for the rate path ahead: there is a wide range of expectations for Fed easing, with the most restrained being Barclays (just one 25bp cut in 2024, with 100bp in 2025), and the most reductions seen by UBS ( 275bp of cuts in 2024, 150bp in 2025).
- General consensus is that Fed easing will start in mid-2024, though there’s no clear expectation of timing.
Source: MNI From Analyst Notes
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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