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Analyst Views On April IPCA

BRAZIL
  • The 0.38% m/m gain in the IPCA in April was partly due to the increase in gasoline prices and 0.7% m/m rise in food prices. Services and industrial goods inflation remained low, helping to keep core inflation well contained at +0.26% m/m (+3.53% y/y).
  • Goldman Sachs note that core services underlying momentum eased in April but continues to merit attention. In particular, labour-intensive services inflation printed at a high +0.40% m/m with the annual measure tracking at 5.55% y/y. In their view, a tight labour market, weak fiscal anchor and weaker BRL among other factors still demand caution in terms of the monetary policy outlook.
  • Meanwhile, Pantheon believe the inflation backdrop remains benign and continue to see the headline rate falling further in the coming months. They note that leading indicators suggest that disinflation will continue in the near term, despite relatively sticky services inflation. Later in the year, the weaker FX could stoke inflation, with the headline rate ending the year around 3.5%.
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