Analysts at Societe Generale.......>

US TSYS/RESEARCH: Analysts at Societe Generale eyed the "debt ceiling vs

balance-sheet unwinding" and quipped, "let the games begin." 

- They say that the Fed "is likely to announce a change in its reinvestment

policy at the September meeting. The debt ceiling deadline in late September

might throw a wrench in the Fed's plans. We look at the debt ceiling playbook

and trades likely to perform if the negotiations are contentious. While we still

favor summer carry trades, we remain on guard, and hold 6-9m forward 5s/30s and

3m forward 5s10s bear steepeners."

- They urge to hold a "neutral duration stance near term, and a bearish tilt

medium term." They suggest to "add to 2-year forward 2/10y-ear conditional bear

flatteners."