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Analysts Expect Next Banxico Rate Cut In June

MEXICO
  • Yesterday’s Banamex economist survey confirmed that analysts expect the central bank to stay on hold tomorrow, with the next move being a 25bp cut in June. Analysts continue to expect the policy rate to end the year at 10%, before falling to 7.75% in 2025. Meanwhile, economists raised their year-end inflation forecast by 7bp to 4.17%, while trimming their 2024 GDP growth forecast by 20bp to 2.20%.
  • In other news, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O said yesterday that the government will continue to provide financial support to Pemex while it refinances its debt, adding that the government would be more involved in addressing the company’s debt problems.
  • Opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez also spoke at the same BBVA event yesterday, saying that Pemex should work with private partners on oil exploration. Today, she is due to speak at an event at 1700BST, while leading presidential candidate Sheinbaum holds a rally at 2000BST, around other engagements during the day.
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