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Analysts Forecast CPI Above 40% for Most of 2022

TURKEY
  • TurkGBs remain Unch this morning amid mixed global risk sentiment filtering through from the APAC session.
  • Today’s price action will likely be dominated by follow-through from yesterday’s upside print in headline & core CPI at 36.08% y/y & 31.88% respectively, highlighting the delayed FX passthrough effect from TRY weakness in Oct-Dec.
  • Here, Erdogan continues to favour non-standard policy tools over rate hikes in the near-term, with sell-side analysts still sticking with their calls for rate hikes in Q2 – but acknowledging lower confidence in these calls.
  • CPI is expected to rise above 40% in Q1, and remain persistently high for the remainder of the year – keeping real yields massively negative and TRY assets under pressure.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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