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Analysts forecast headline August...>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: Analysts forecast headline August CPI at +0.3%, with core CPI
at +0.2%. In the past few months, headline and core CPI have been overestimated,
as has been the case in recent August reports, with the exception of August
2016. The forecasted upswing in headline CPI is expected to be driven by a boost
in energy prices from Harvey, but analysts say that the brunt of Harvey's impact
will come in September. If core CPI comes in at the expected 0.2% gain, it will
be the largest increase in six months, but the year/year rate should actually
pull back further due to a strong 0.3% core gain in August 2016. A rebound for
core CPI is seen as critical to the FOMC's decision on December rate hike.
However, it may prove difficult for bond markets to absorb, as they have already
priced low odds on a December hike due to the devastating hurricane impacts.

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