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Market News Topics
April 17, 2024 15:53 GMT
Analysts On Issuance Plans/Market Impact
CANADA
- BMO: “While issuance was modestly higher, it was below expectations, and the big levers of income tax on the personal and corporate side were left untouched. Accordingly, this budget should be viewed as neutral on balance for bonds and the Canadian dollar, all else equal, and near-term inflation trends and BoC messaging will likely dominate.”
- CIBC: “While the increase was not quite as large as our FICC strategists had feared, owing to less of a need to cover non-budgetary transactions (e.g. loans), we're still facing an increase in bond supply in the coming year.”
- “We're getting into the days of heavy maturities of the debt used to finance the pandemic period deficit. Some of the government program spending is in the form of loans that won't be adding much to deficits but will need financing, as will its plan to buy Canada Mortgage Bonds.”
- “The small projected decline in the deficit will be more than countered by an increase in non-budgetary transactions, so net financing requirements are expected to climb. Add to that a heavier schedule for maturities, and gross borrowing needs will grow to $523.4 bn, from $447.4 bn the prior year.”
- Desjardins: “The government might be pulling out all stops to adhere to its fiscal anchors but that doesn’t prevent bond issuance from rising significantly, notably as a result of the loan programs and CMB buybacks. To put the $228B planned bond issuance in perspective, recall that pre-pandemic bond programs typically ranged between $95B and $100B.”
- “The BoC is not looking to start purchasing GoC bonds this year. The upshot is that 2024-25 will see the biggest volume of net bond supply hitting the market on record.”
- National: “There’s no little amount of borrowing to do. The government intends to issue $228 billion of GoC bonds this year, up 12% from last fiscal year with marginal issuance disproportionately skewed to 5s and 10s. While net bill issuance appears relatively better contained, this program is hardly status quo. Ottawa will start issuing 1-month T-bills in May, following through on a proposal first floated in the fall.”
- TD: “All told, the issuance announcement comes in on the lower end of "business as usual". There might be slightly less impetus to see the CAD curve steepen relative to our projections, but with the increase in Provincial issuance we continue to look for supply to weigh on 10s and longs (combined Provi/SSA/GoC/CMB/Pension issuance is still expected to increase by nearly 8% in FY 2024/25).”
- “The Canada-US trade will be neither helped nor hindered by this announcement, as recent dynamics have been much more a function of divergent macro backdrops than relative supply dynamics.”
To read the full story
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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