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Analysts On Retail Sales

CANADA
  • BMO: “Firmer than expected in September, though most of the strength was concentrated in autos and gasoline. Even so, volumes managed to eke out a small positive for the month. Still, elevated interest rates and mortgage resets still coming, suggest consumers will remain cautious.”
  • CIBC: “The September print suggests that overall GDP in that month will have looked slightly better than the advance estimate, at 0.1% m/m. And while the underlying core group of sales continues to suggest a wilting consumer, solid auto sales may prevent another drop in goods consumption in the final quarter. With the unemployment rate climbing and precautionary savings increasing in anticipation of mortgage renewals, we expect core signals to remain weak, leaving the BoC on the sidelines until rate cuts likely commence in Q2.”
  • National: “The preliminary estimate for nominal sales suggests the latter could have increased 0.8% in October (likely more in real terms). It remains to be seen whether this figure will be confirmed next month, which would signify a good start to the quarter, but we remain skeptical as to the sustainability of such a rebound insofar as consumption has not fully felt the full impact of the rate hikes”.
  • TD: “Adjusted for prices, retail spending hit a wall in the third quarter, declining by 1.8% (annualized). Spending on services has been more resilient and should continue to support growth. Overall, we expect personal consumption expenditure to grow by slightly less than 1.0% annualized in Q3 – likely enough for real GDP growth to remain flat.”
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