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Analysts On Today's CPI

CANADA
BMO, CIBC, Desjardins and RBC look for a June cut, with some Budget and data caveats, but TD for now still look for a July cut.
  • BMO: “It seems strange that a near-3% headline inflation result, coupled with a 0.6% monthly rise, would pass off as good inflation news these days. But the steady cooling in core inflation is welcome news indeed, with now three of the four measures of core below 3% for the first time since the summer of 2021. For the BoC, this result is likely just good enough to keep them on track for a potential trim in June. We'll get one more CPI before that decision, as well as Q1 GDP—and today's federal budget of course—but odds are leaning to a June move for now.”
  • CIBC: “Inflationary pressures in Canada remain weaker and more concentrated in specific areas (shelter) than in the US, which makes sense given weaker consumer spending here. That should justify a first interest rate cut from the BoC in June, provided the next CPI release doesn't show a sizeable reacceleration in core measures. However, a weakening currency complicates matters somewhat and could restrict how many cuts the Bank feels comfortable delivering before the Fed also starts trimming rates later in the year.”
  • Desjardins: “When Macklem said he wanted to see more of what he had seen in January and February, this type of release was exactly what he was looking for. As a result, we are retaining our call for a rate cut in June. That said, cooperation from the federal government this afternoon and the next CPI release will both be key in seeing that forecast materialize.
  • RBC: “March’s reading today confirmed that broad-based easing in price pressures in Canada are indeed underway. Different measures of core inflation all continued to decelerate and the diffusion index that measures the scope of inflation pressures also improved again and now tracks a breadth of price pressure that’s similar to pre-pandemic. […] We continue to look for slowing inflation will allow for a first rate cut from the BoC in June.”
  • TD: "With inflation still at the top of the BoC's range, we expect the bank will want to see a bit more confirmation before taking rates lower and lean towards a July cut. However, if the numbers continue to soften by more than we are expecting, risks are tilted towards an earlier move."
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