Analysts On Upcoming GDP Data

As noted in the earlier GDP preview, the Bloomberg median sees real GDP growth of 0.8% annualized in Q4. The larger Canadian banks see estimates fairly closely around that, ranging from 0.5-1.0%, with some specific details below from a few of them:

• CIBC are in line with consensus with 0.8% for Q4, which they attribute to a “modest increase” for consumer spending after two stagnant quarters, but one that remains “sluggish” in per capita terms. They caution that the rebound in economic activity “largely stems from an easing of previous supply disruptions rather than necessarily a strengthening in domestic demand”.
• TD also look for Q4 GDP growth of 0.8%, “underpinned by stronger household consumption, residential investment, and net exports. Durable goods will provide the main driver for household spending after a sharp increase in motor vehicle sales, as higher production volumes help to chip away at pent-up demand. […] While a 0.2% print on industry-level GDP translates to 1.1% for Q4, we would also note that expenditure-based growth has underperformed the aggregated monthly data for most of 2022/23 so divergence between these two measures would not be overly alarming.”
• Scotia meanwhile look for 0.6% for Q4 but with the monthly data keeping to the 0.3% increase for Dec and with another possible increase in Jan, helped by “very powerful” momentum from hours worked into 2024. They also point to strong impulse from net trade with export volumes rising by just under 3% in Q4 vs import volumes falling by about -0.5%.