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Analysts Positive on China Oil Demand Despite Economic Concerns

OIL

The outlook for crude demand from the key importer China remains uncertain and is one of the topics in focus at the APPEC conference this week.

  • Trafigura Group are relatively positive on fuel consumption in China. “In terms of China demand, the property market is bad, but the other parts of the economy aren’t.” said Ben Luckock.
  • Chinese oil demand will likely see a huge surge in the fourth quarter according to Gary Ross at Black Gold Investors LLC. Jet fuel and gasoline consumption is strong, and refinery runs are likely to remain high, boosting the country’s crude imports.
  • China’s crude demand growth is expected to account for about 40% of the global total this year. Jet fuel consumption could rise 90% in the second half from a year earlier according to Sinopec.
  • Asia's total oil demand is expected to increase 3.8% (1.39mb/d) yr/yr in 2023 to 38.1mb/d with China up 6.1% (940kb/d) to 16.4mb/d in 2023 and up 3.5% in 2024 according to S&P Global.

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