Analysts Remain Mildly Split On Tomorrow's HICP Print

With the German national CPI data in hand, here is an updated run-through of expectations for Friday's Eurozone HICP data - reminder we get the Netherlands and Austria Friday ahead of the Italian and Eurozone prints at 1000UK/1100CET. Even after the incoming data, representing more than 60% of the Eurozone HICP basket, there is a decent split between those above and below the consensus coming into the week (3.0% Y/Y headline, 3.4% core). MNI continues to track headline HICP at roughly 2.8% Y/Y, with the 3.4% core consensus estimate looking roughly correct.

• JPM (remains above consensus): Maintains current forecast of 3.2% Y/Y headline HICP and 3.6% core (both above consensus). The core print would be equivalent to 0.5% M/M in SA terms.
• HSBC (remains above consensus): "possible downside risk to our above-consensus forecast... at 3.1% y-o-y for headline and 3.6% for core".
• Goldman (remains below consensus): Estimates German core HICP at 3.34% Y/Y in December (from 3.48% Nov). They raise their eurozone HICP forecast 0.01pp to 2.87% Y/Y, but their core estimate unchanged at 3.40% Y/Y. This would imply a SA 0.23% M/M figure, up 21bp from November.
• Nomura (remains below consensus): "All else being equal...HICP inflation is likely to print in line with our below-consensus forecast of 2.8% y-o-y [2.76% based on current data]...core, meanwhile, may eventually print marginally higher [3.3-3.4%, vs their 3.3% estimate coming into the month](Spanish data previously released were on the stronger side, as was Irish data published today)." Re Germany, "core inflation (using the CPI measure), meanwhile, also came in weaker than we likely would have expected; of interest to the ECB, however, will be the slowing in services inflation in Germany and how this contrasts with French services inflation, which appears resilient."