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Foreign investors have been an important source of demand for French general government debt over the past 20 years.
Data up to Q2 2024 suggests foreign demand has remained largely resilient over the past few years.
However, renewed political and fiscal uncertainty following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s minority government raises concerns about whether foreigners will continue to show appetite for French debt into next year, particularly with the ECB’s balance sheet reduction also set to gather pace.
This analysis piece sketches out key compositional changes in French debt from 2004 to Q2 2024, using data from the IMF (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2014, updated) and the ECB.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (LONDON)
Executive Summary
Foreign investors have been an important source of demand for French general government debt over the past 20 years.
Data up to Q2 2024 suggests foreign demand has remained largely resilient over the past few years.
However, renewed political and fiscal uncertainty following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s minority government raises concerns about whether foreigners will continue to show appetite for French debt into next year, particularly with the ECB’s balance sheet reduction also set to gather pace.
This analysis piece sketches out key compositional changes in French debt from 2004 to Q2 2024, using data from the IMF (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2014, updated) and the ECB.
