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Analysts Revise Forecasts for Colombia Inflation/Local Asset Prices

COLOMBIA
  • Stronger than expected data was released yesterday:
    • *Colombia July Mfg Production Rises 20.1% Y/y, Est. +16.1%
    • *Colombia July Industrial Production Rises 13.5% Y/y
    • *Colombia July Retail Sales Rise 26.9% Y/y, Est. +23.0%
  • From latest central bank economist survey:
    • *2021 Year-End CPI now seen at 4.7% versus 4.21% in August.
  • Sell-side notes:
  • *Yesterday, Itau raised their Colombia rate forecasts to 3% by Year End; Prior Est. 2.5%. They said that upside inflation surprises and increasing external imbalances led to the new estimate.
  • *Additionally, Barclays noted a strong economic outlook, tax reform, low near-term political risks and attractive valuations will drive gains in the Colombian peso into year-end.
    • They forecast USD/COP to reach 3,725 by year-end, expecting the global environment to be supportive of high-beta commodity-sensitive currencies, in Q4 21 and early 2022.
    • They also note the market is pricing in a "somewhat aggressive" hiking cycle for the central bank, reflecting risks around the fiscal outlook and politics; recommends receiving five-year COP IBR.
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