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Analysts See A Few Ways The Statement Could Change (In A Dovish Direction)

FED

A few sell-side analyst views on how the FOMC statement could change (note the vast majority expect no major changes):

  • Morgan Stanley: Multiple ways to signal a possible “step down”: could change paragraph on current conditions to include observation that financial conditions have tightened. Could soften “ongoing increases” in hikes. May reference concerns about global financial conditions; “watching closely” would be strong message.
  • TD: Possible to get subtle references to the lagged impact of the totality of rate hikes and the need to assess their effectiveness while determining the size of future hikes.
  • UBS: KC’s George to dissent in favor of a smaller hike.
  • Wells Fargo: Could see the addition that when "assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information and cumulative policy adjustments for the economic outlook"
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