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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The Bloomberg analyst survey shows a lower Fed rates path than the market and even more so the Fed’s dot plot estimates. The survey was however collected from Sep 19-22 which could complicate results seeing as the FOMC decision was on Sep 20.
- The median response sees the Fed Funds target range ending this year at the current 5.25-5.5% (5.5-5.75% median dot, market pricing effective 5.44%).
- It then falls to 4-4.25% for end-2024 (5-5.25% median dot, market pricing effective 4.66%) and 3-3.25% for end-2025 (3.75-4% median dot).
- The highest of 65 estimates for end-2024 at 5.75-6% is still below the 6-6.25% highest dot in the SEP, believed to be Gov. Bowman.
- The growth outlook is near unchanged from the August survey: the median analyst expects a recession to start in 2024 (had been 2023 prior to August) with US GDP growth seen averaging 0.9% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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