Analysts See Sequential SA Core HICP Increase Again in Jan

Analysts views on the sequential seasonally-adjusted Eurozone January core HICP hover broadly around +0.35% M/M, which would be the second increase in a row (+0.23% Dec, -0.08% Nov), after the official ECB data, which is usually released in the afternoon of the flash HICP print, is still partly missing for January.

Details see below:

• JP Morgan: "We think the flash core print is consistent with a seasonally adjusted monthly core price gain of around 0.3-0.4% sa"
• Goldman Sachs: "We estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation was 0.27%mom, excluding the German restaurant VAT increase, which we estimate contributed around 4bp"
• Nomura: "Assuming no revisions to previous seasonally-adjusted % m-o-m figures, the minimum monthly inflation rate required for January to obtain 3.3% y-o-y would be 0.35% m-o-m SA [core]"
• Barclays: "The direction depends on whether we seasonally adjust the core series directly (momentum decelerating) or we aggregate seasonally adjusted core goods and services (momentum accelerating). However, in both cases, the 3mma core momentum continues to hover around 2.0% m/m SAAR.”