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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
[The below is taken from the full MNI Payrolls Preview - see here].
- The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged in April at 3.8% in tomorrow's release.
- If you recall, it was mostly stable between Feb and March despite household employment volatility, only dipping from 3.86% to 3.83% in a move that looked larger on a rounded basis.
- It won’t take much for an upside surprise on a rounded basis here but only 10 of 66 analysts in the Bloomberg survey look for such a move and with Deutsche the only primary dealer analyst - see below.
- We consider this a main risk to analyst expectations for this month’s release.
- Primary dealer analysts also offer very little skew when it comes to AHE estimates, with broad consensus for a 0.3% M/M although as we note in the preview a few note downside risks from a calendar effect.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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