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US TSYS/3Y: And BMO's Aaron Kohli said Tsy "debt ceiling should make 3-year
notes a safe spot to park cash for front-end investors who are concerned about
end September or the budget debate getting drawn out. Temporary cpn size cuts
are likely inevitable at some point as the debate around hiking the debt ceiling
drags on till the 11th hour."
- He adds "front-end futures are still short but have pared a bit" into the
auction, which "should still offer a bid for the front-end though it may not be
as strong as it was in the past. Relatively small net new cash this week of
$14.7 bn should be helpful to front-end investors and leave them looking for
places to put cash."
- He said "positive bill auctions recently suggest a good deal of cash at the
front-end still, looking for yld. Seasonal bias is for August 3-year auctions to
stop through with 5 of the last 7 coming through 1pm levels."
- He adds "3-year is acutely vulnerable to CPI" Fri but it's "not clear that
we've built up enough of a cushion in the event we get a good print."