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And NatWest's Michelle Girard......>

US TSYS/RESEARCH
US TSYS/RESEARCH: And NatWest's Michelle Girard and Kevin Cummins said further
on the July FOMC mtg minutes that "in general, the Committee did not appear
overly concerned about financial stability risks. However, as we have said
previously, the sharp easing in financial conditions this year is the strongest
argument in favor of continued gradual policy normalization, even in the face of
slower inflation."
- They "continue to look for the Fed to hike rates next in December and to
maintain a once-per-quarter hiking pace through 2018. By the end of next year,
we forecast the fed funds target range to be 2.25%-2.50%. Market participants
remain skeptical, believing the Fed will under-deliver on the guidance they have
provided. However, with unemployment solidly below the Fed's NAIRU estimate, the
global economy stronger than at any point thus far in the cycle, financial
conditions accommodative, and financial stability on the Fed's radar, we believe
the hurdle is high for policymakers to deviate from the gradual policy
normalization path they have set out."

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