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Free AccessAnd Nomura team said on 2018 "stealth.......>
US TSYS: And Nomura team said on 2018 "stealth leverage" as "if the economy
slows, the risk is that auto (loan) sector would get hit, but overall a pop here
is not likely to be systemic."
- They cited "another concern among those worried about the consumer is the high
levels of student debt" but it's led to more of a behavioral shift of less home
buying. But as wages rise, these debts will not all pop at once. This too is
less systemic."
- But they warn "financial leverage" is where "embedded leverage" exists as over
past 10 yrs, "fastest-growing debt was in capital mkts as seen in corporate debt
up roughly $3trn" with some of that "smart usage of debt, terming out to lock-in
low costs of funding, but much" of it "went into stock buybacks and/or to highly
leveraged corporates. The credit quality of the universe has moved towards BBB
and higher duration. A reprice of corporate credit when balance sheets are still
thin could indicate that meaningful risk lies ahead. Deeper under the surface
margin debt for stk purchases are also at all-time highs. Finally, some vol
selling strategies in ETF form could be the pinprick to passive investing."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.