### Angst is growing ahead Sep 30 debt......>

US TSYS: ### Angst is growing ahead Sep 30 debt ceiling deadline -- if Congress

and US Pres Trump do not raise the limit before Oct 1, the US Govt will shut

down while the probability of a default rises sharply when Tsy coffers run out

of cash on hand a couple of weeks later (estimates vary). If prior run-ups to

ceiling suspensions and resets is any indication, we're not likely to see

resolution until the eleventh hour in late September. Citigroup researchers

posit four potential outcomes for the ceiling: Kill it, Raise it, Punt it or

Default. Punting, or suspending "for another two years, per tradition, or for a

brief period (3-6 months) in  anticipation of tax reform" is the most likely

outcome Citi said, while Raising the limit with/without concessions is a close

second. Tail risk scenario is Default, taking no action which would likely spur

"Govt. shutdown and  debt ratings downgrades". Killing the ceiling altogether is

unlikely Citi said, despite it being an "arcane, troublesome metric" the ceiling

is still a "100-year institution...and symbol of fiscal discipline." Citi

expects a "sharp ramp-up of bill issuance in all likely scenarios," and "about

7bp tightening in 3M OIS/GC by the year-end.