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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Recent Highs

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS

(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

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The previously flagged hawkish RBNZ repricing in the wake of the latest NZ labour market data has added fresh tightening pressure to the Australia/New Zealand 2-Year swap spread, resulting in yet another multi-year low for that differential.

  • The differences between the short-term path of RBA & RBNZ policy is becoming more pronounced even after the RBA's decision to stick with its tapering plans.
  • A reminder that all of the "big 4" New Zealand Banks now look for 3x 25bp hikes from the RBNZ during the remainder of '21. That equates to a 25bp hike at each of the remining 3 meetings. The OIS strip currently prices ~67bp of tightening over the same horizon.

Fig. 1: Australia/New Zealand 2-Year Swap Spread (%)

Source: Bloomberg