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OPTIONS: Another decent day for currency hedging volumes (mirrored in healthy
activity in FX futures) with the AUD/USD and USD/CAD options markets
particularly busy compared to recent averages. It's been a mixed day for vols,
however, as most DMFX implied contracts pull lower, while Asia-Pac vols remain
- The one standout is GBP, as front-month vol tenors have inched higher
following today's turnaround in the implied rate cut probability for the looming
Bank of England decision. This comes despite the persistent pullback in realised
vols, making this Friday's PMI data the next flash point for activity.
- The front-end of the EUR vol curve has resumed its downward trend despite the
proximity to this Thursday's ECB decision. 1m vols now sit at (again) the lowest
levels on record at 3.8 points as the whole curve itself flattens further.
Naturally, the overnight EUR/USD vol contract has edged higher as it captures
Thursday's ECB, but sits considerably lower than previous pre-meeting spikes in
2019. This indicates a distinct lack of expectations that the ECB will move